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Tonight · Lynx at Liberty Sample data

Napheesa Collier

MIN @ NY · 7:30 ET

o 18.5 Points

−115

How often she has cleared it

H2H3/4

L53/5

L107/10

L1510/15

L3020/30

202622/31

202519/29

Tonight’s matchup

DvP1.20

Edge+6.2

vs. Size8/10

DvP = 1.20: Defense versus position. How much of this stat New York has given up to her position group over their last ten games, indexed against the league. 1.00 is exactly league average, so 1.20 means they allow 20% more than a typical team — a generous matchup for an Over.
Edge = +6.2: The model’s chance this bet wins, minus the chance the price implies once the book’s margin is stripped out, in percentage points. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the price does — here, 6.2 points likelier.
vs. Size = 8/10: Her record on this line against defenses of this height. Opposing position groups are cut into three tiers by height; New York falls in the tallest, and she has gone over in 8 of 10 against that tier.

Game	Pts	o 18.5	DvP	Edge	Size
9/28 NY	23	Over	1.18	+5.4	Tallest
9/25 @LV	17	Under	0.91	−1.2	Middle
9/21 SEA	26	Over	1.24	+7.1	Middle
9/18 @PHX	21	Over	0.97	+0.4	Shortest
9/15 CHI	14	Under	0.88	−2.0	Shortest
9/11 @IND	25	Over	1.15	+4.6	Middle
9/8 CON	19	Over	1.02	+0.8	Tallest
9/4 @DAL	16	Under	0.94	−0.6	Middle
9/1 ATL	28	Over	1.21	+6.5	Middle
8/28 @WAS	20	Over	1.09	+3.2	Tallest

7 over, 3 under — the 7/10 above, and you just counted it. Three of these ten were against tall front lines like tonight’s, and she cleared all three; the 8/10 on the card is her record against that tier across her career, not just these ten.

What you are looking at

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The same line across every book

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Seven windows, not one

Head to head, the last 5, 10, 15 and 30, this season and last. A hot two weeks and a good year look identical until you put them side by side.

And what tonight actually is

How much this defense gives up to her position, how she does against front lines this tall, and where the model lands against the price. Form is not the same question as matchup.

Outliers

Props that clear every test at once

Favorable matchup, recent rate, a price no worse than −130, and the rest — all true together. It is a conjunction, not a ranking, and it says nothing about what you should do with it.

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